Peak Oil Bet #2

Date begunApril 17, 2008
Date terminatesDecember 31, 2030 (at the latest)
Pro Peak OilDon Geddis
Con Peak OilWinfred Ark

Don bought out the original peak oil bet on 4/17/2008 for $100. (The bet had not yet resolved in Win's favor, but it seemed highly likely that it would be, and it was no longer interesting to wait and watch.) Simultaneously, this new second Peak Oil bet was agreed.

Conditions: If the peak of world crude + condensation occurs prior to 2010, Don wins. If it occurs after 2015, Win wins. If it occurs between 2010 and 2015, the bet is a wash.

Stakes: The dollar value of a barrel of crude oil, at the time the bet is resolved.


June 9, 2017

World oil production soared, led by the US development of fracking, which changed the US from a net oil importer, to a net oil exporter, for the first time in decades.

The earlier high (in the original bet) was a world production of 73.65mbpd in 2005. It is clear that the peak of oil production was not prior to 2010. There was another monthly peak in November 2015, at around 80.63mbpd. According to the terms of the bet, that would be a "wash", as world production had dropped slightly at the beginning of 2016.

However, oil production rose again at the end of 2016, to over 82mbpd. This clearly means that peak production is after 2015, and Win wins the bet.

Stakes: On 6/9/2017, a barrel of crude oil costs about $49.

October 2019

As some additional data, it's now clear that "conventional oil" production did peak around 2011. However, new sources of "unconventional oil" (e.g. fracking) have more than made up the difference, and so the world's supply of total liquids has continued to increase.

Win basically bet on human ingenuity and the development of further technology, and that guess turned out to be correct. New oil sources were discovered with new technology.

October 2022

World oil prodution continues to rise. For encrypted email, use my PGP Public Key. Last updated 10/27/22